The risk of a major military conflict remains low. However, there are
regional and local, non-military and military risks difficult to be
foreseen, which could evolve into threats. They are categorized into regional, asymmetric, transnational risks and unpredictable hazards.
Regional risks include:
strategic
imbalance in military capability within Romania's area of strategic
interest;
military
conflicts and tensions which could extend;
standing
economical-social shortcomings directly affecting military capability
and depreciating the authority of national leadership institutions
of our state;
the
possibility of disrupting financial, information, energy, communications
and telecommunications of the states systems, and the political-military
rivalries between them.
Asymmetric
risks include strategies or deliberately undertaken actions against
the Romanian state, using methods different from classical combat, aiming
at attacking vulnerable fields of civil society which may directly or
indirectly affect the armed forces as well; they are as follows:
expansion
of terrorist networks and activities;
uncontrolled
proliferation and dissemination of nuclear technology and materials,
weapons of mass destruction, proliferation of armaments and other
lethal, unconventional means, information warfare;
Romania's
isolation within the global community based on information, because
it does not have specific infrastructure. Such risks include the breaking
off of critical information flow, the presentation of a distorted
image of the Romanian democratic society and observance of international
treaties and agreements, the limitation of access to strategic resources,
degradation of environment and the presence of high level risk objectives
in the very proximity of the national boundaries
Transnational
risks, by definition, are not confined by national boundaries. Groups
that promote separatism or extremism, may generate some of these new
threats. Others can originate from ethnic disputes, religious rivalries
and violation of human rights. Organized crime, smugling of illegal
drugs, arms and strategic materials bring about new risks.
Recent events demonstrate the negative consequences of a massive flow
of refugees.
Unpredictable hazards are the risks resting in the unknown field
of uncertainty and they are based on objective and subjective elements.
The existing good international relations could change or worsen.
The region is also prone to natural disasters: floods, drought and earthquakes.
It is extremely important to assess the consequences of risks to national
security, in the field of defense. If these risks are not identified,
defined or countered in due time, they may have consequences occurring
isolated or most certainly cumulated: mention should be made of the
following:
Romania's
loss of credibility, as a country firmly committed to European and
Euro-Atlantic integration; rendering the leadership and executive
political, economical-financial and military systems disorganized
at national level or in certain operational areas, implying the partial
or total exclusion of the country from the regional and world flow
of information;
the
failure of the reform process, the decrease of standard of life under
the bearable limits and the diminishing of the biological potential
of human resources;
lowering
of the population's state of mind and confidence in the decision-makers;
domestic unrest with a direct effect on Romania's democratic stability;
decrease
of the armed forces' combat readiness and compromising of the military's
credibility as a force to prevent, deter and annihilate possible aggressions;
the
limitation in time and space of the armed forces' responsiveness in
crisis and in war time;
prejudice
of national independence and sovereignty with direct effects on the
maintenance of the unity and territorial integrity of the Romanian
state.
To
mitigate the effects of risks, firm and timely measures are required to
be taken. Their postponement will only increase risks and raise the cost
of future actions. In order to properly respond to the entire spectrum
of risks we must have in due time the required forces with a high level
of readiness. According to their structure, equipment and training, the
Romanian Armed Forces are not prepared to counter the economic-social
risks and they have limited capabilities to counter the asymmetric and
transnational risks. Based on the decision of the national command authority,
the Armed Forces will cooperate with the other elements of the national
defense system, specialized in fighting against these risks.
